WinGen
The Plan
The principle objective
of this initiative is to challenge the rural sector to take ownership of the
planning for, and the implementation of, land based wind generated electricity
and so deliver a major part solution to the unfolding energy and environment
challenges facing our world.
This is a plan that delivers to stake holders of the rural community the chance
to take substantial initial ownership of the wind generating potential of
its own land and vistas.
A new energy company 'Rural Sector WinGen LTD' '(RSWL)' is envisaged that within
twelve years could be one of the biggest power suppliers in UK, the EU, even
in the World!
Executive
Summary
1. The world's current energy resources have gone critical.
Without massive investment in new sources the world will run out of energy,
with massive famine a concurrent consequence. The principle objective of this
initiative is to put the rural sector into the driving seat of planning implementing
and owning one of the major solutions - that of wind generated electricity.
2. It is a big plan. A new company - Rural Sector WinGen Ltd (RSWL) will be
created with a potential to develop a capability within 12 years, to deliver,
on average, 30 Giga Watts (GWs) into the national
grid from suitable sites all over the UK. (The UK's current generating capacity
is circa 85 GWs)
3. Current financial prognosis indicate a potential >20% return on total
capital.
4. 30 GWs from wind will reduce UK's carbon emissions
by >100 million tons annually.
5. Crucially, the rural community will have first call on the ownership of RSWL.
It is likely to be very profitable for all investors, and could deliver to rural
and small investment shareholders meaningful
discounts on their domestic electricity bills proportional to their holding
of original 'green' Wingen shares.
6. A "buy in" by the whole rural sector is fundamental. The power
to take the plan forward, financially and politically will come from that
"buy in". Such a "buy in", will deliver much of the entrepreneurial
profits back into the hands of the rural community. Land owners large and
small with suitable sites, will benefit considerably more through investing
in RSWL, than going it alone or in individual partnership with ad hoc City
investment. Currently it is mostly big business and the city that is scoring
financially. Site owner rents are the crumbs.
7. Like them or hate them, windmills will, in the end, be de facto anyway,
so what better than to own them and profit by them?
8. The scale of the plan delivers the ability to put in place the best technical,
financial and admin management available, massive buying and financing power,
and substantial control of the electricity output price.
9. Downstream activity would be to develop capability to store "windy
day" energy in hydrogen production for both transport energy and the
production of fertiliser (Ammonium Nitrate) with out which we cannot feed
the world.
10. The biggest challenge will be steering through the political and planning
minefield. Offering a major contribution to the UK's carbon reducing commitments
has to be of deep interest. However a major rural sector "buy in"
would be a big key to achieving political support to streamline the planning
process.
11. An important consideration is that over the 12 years most of the £90
billion spend, can go back into the UK economy. Particularly, the spare engineering
capacity of Clydeside, Teeside, Humberside, Belfast
or wherever, can be tasked to make and deliver the windmills. And the continuing
servicing thereafter will be no mean employer. (£0.9
Billion annual spend)
12. The first step will be to establish a big rural interest in the project,
and particularly a wide farmer and landowner interest willing to long lease
the UK's suitable sites to the company.
13. Given sufficient interest, implementation could start in Scotland prior
to a full UK rollout.
14. This plan is only a beginning. The company would seek continual investment
in complimentary energy opportunities.
15. At wingen.co.uk interested parties can see (and download) the current
plan, comment and advise on it, and seek for further information.
Maitland Mackie, the progenitor of the idea, will be happy to entertain calls
regarding the initiative at 01467 671466
Or write direct to Maitland Mackie,
Eikeland,
Rothienorman,
Aberdeenshire, AB51 8US
A
BHAG (big hairy audacious goal) for the rural community
Index
1.
Executive Summary
2. A principle objective
3.
The Plan
4.
Rural participation
5.
The benefits to Landowners of participation
6. The wider political rationale
7.
The planning issue
8.
Current level of wind generation investment in UK (2006)
9.
Land based distributed wind generation issues
10. Scale issues
11. Mackie's of Scotland Ltd experience
12. Rural Sector WinGen Ltd ownership and share structure
13. Management structure and governance
14. Financial potential. A P & L speculation on full
30,000 3MW windgens (12 years)
15. Financing rural sector Wingen Ltd
16. Next stage and milestones (preliminary)
17. Some facts and figures on the energy crisis
2. A principle objective
The principle objective of this initiative is to challenge the rural sector
to take ownership of the planning and the implementation of land based wind
generated electricity and so deliver a major part solution to the unfolding
energy and environment challenges facing our world.
3. The plan
This is a plan that delivers to stake holders of the rural community the chance
to take substantial initial ownership of the wind generating potential of its
own land and vistas. A new energy company 'Rural Sector WinGen LTD' '(RSWL)'
is envisaged that within twelve years could be one of the biggest power suppliers
in UK, the EU, even in the World!
Part of the plan will be that rural stakeholders will have first priority and
financial incentive to take up share issue as they come on offer. Further the
first shares will be "green" shares which will deliver to rural investors,
first call on subsequent investment rounds, and substantial discounts on domestic
electricity bills.
Think big. 30,000 three megawatt windgens will
have an average delivery of 30 Giga Watts (see
section 9) The current generating capacity of the UK is circa 85 Giga
Watts. 30 giga watts is mega, maybe more is doable!
But we need
to get our act together, fast, before the city and big business steal our show!
It is sad to discover just how much has already been signed
away.
A second stage would be to engage in direct retailing, and downstream production
activity such as hydrogen production, and other new energy storage systems.
4. Rural
participation
The key to delivering this project is an early big buy in by the rural sector
in general, and in particular, farmers and landlords, large and small.
Wide scale rural participation is important as it will deliver crucial backing
for politics to tackle the serious planning issues currently stemming progress.
It is intended to market share issues of the company in modes that clearly favour
rural sector participation, and deliver to rural sector "green" share
holders useful discounts on their electricity bills!
Note that rural sector participation is certainly not restricted only to persons
with suitable sites. Uptake of 'green' shares will be encouraged and discounted
to all of the rural community. Indeed ownership by the
many is an objective. Thus small scale initial UK investors from anywhere will
be encouraged.
However landholders participation is a "sine qua non". They will be
asked to second to Rural Sector WinGen Ltd, first call on potential wingen
sites. It will be the seconding of this formal first call on sites that will
deliver to RSWL the strength to secure the massive financing required
for the project. There are numerous substantive financial and operational advantages
for potential site owners to so participate. (see section
6)
5. The benefits to Landowners of participation
1.
No hassle other than the signing of a first call on potential
sites, then should site be suitable, a long term
lease of sites to RSWL
2. Individual initiatives are fraught with planning permission, grid connection,
financing, installation and continuing service hassles. The company will be
responsible for all of that. It will have all the expertise in house required
to plan deliver and install the generators.
3. An assured 'going rate' income for live sites.
£15K/yr for a 3 mega mill is currently budgeted. (see
section 14).
But the new company will simply pay the going rate. A more likely/better plan
would be to arrange payment as a percentage of individual generator output.
4. Farmers/landlords who consider financing own generators have to deliver loan
security for any borrowings. RSWL will be responsible for securing all share
and loan capital. Farmers and landlords totally free to choose their own level
of investment in RSWL.
5. Will receive a goodwill allocation of green shares. And of course further
investment in green shares will deliver the bonus of increasing discounts on
electricity use.
6. The company will have the substantial benefit of its massive buying and selling
and political power, so it is very likely to deliver better investment returns
than individual go it alone initiatives. The company will control everything
from post wind to final consumer! (Control of wind not yet planned!) Currently
farmer investors are price takers. RSWL will be such a major player as to be
a price maker within the bounds of competition commission
regulations.
6. The wider political rationale
Ameliorating Climate change is indeed a challenge. But this challenge pales
into insignificance compared with that of the energy crisis now upon us. We
are at the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era.(see
section 17) Massive investment in new environmentally friendly energy
sources is required now - before the old energy sources run out. You cannot
make the new if you don't have the old with which to make it. Distributed
wind power generation can/will be a big part of the solution.
Further "we eat oil". Half the World's food comes from Ammonium Nitrate
fertiliser, which itself almost totally comes from oil and gas. The current
huge rise in the price of fuel and food is not a blip. It is the reality of
the beginning of real scarcity. To deny and procrastinate spells doom for the
majority of the peoples of the World. Hungry people are angry people. Armageddon
is no longer a figment of imagination. The current welcome
reduction in energy and food prices caused by World economic chaos is a blip.
The fundamentals of scarcity are unchanged.
The politics and commerce of the World must now focus on shifting trillions
of pounds worth of our current assets and activities into delivering massive
new energy sources. These are Nuclear and geo-thermal particularly for base
load, and direct solar, tidal, and wind power on both land and sea. We do not
have the luxury of choosing. We need all of them and fast. Crucial to this plan
is that land based distributed wind power is by far the most cost effective
and fastest to deliver, of these solutions. (see section
9)
7. The planning issue
Need to recognise that this issue is the biggest blocker, perhaps the only blocker,
to delivering this initiative. Individual applications are taking an average
16 months to process regardless of outcome. It is not possible to over emphasize
the requirement for immediacy in finding solution to the energy crisis. Politicians
national and local have to fully address this issue.
A large scale rural "buy in" to the initiative would give strong backing
for our politicians to tackle the politics of planning head on. If offered fast
delivery of such a massive, very green, very real, least expensive, rural sector
participating solution to the impending crisis duo of energy and climate,
politicians, national and local would be hugely irresponsible not to seriously
try to put on fast track, resolution of the present stultifying planning procedures.
Required is legislation dictating to councils that fast delivery of distributed
land based wind generators, on this scale, are a crucial part of the future.
National government could steer that Councils may proactively determine very
limited no go areas - eg S.S.I.s, identified real beauty spots, and airport
approaches. Beyond that permission should be a formality anywhere outwith say
500 meters of residence. They need to deliver a promoting rather than a restricting,
prohibiting culture. Crucial to appreciate that nimby-ism is not an option.
Anyway are they so bad? See Murdo our neighbour's poem below under Mackie's
Experience (see section 11)
Note that a solution that also delivers meaningful hydrogen manufacture gives
us a start also to delivering alternative "green" fuel for transport,
and importantly, a source of nitrate fertilizer, so beginning to address the
concomitant emerging food crisis.
Further, government needs to note that the clearing of this initiative puts
on a fast track the potential of an annual injection of up to multi-billions,
£9 Billion for the full monte, into manufacturing
in the home economy, and with an eventual on going annual £0.9
billion servicing spend.
8.
Current level of wind generators investment in UK (2008)
|
Onshore
|
Offshore
|
|
|
Turbine
capacity installed
|
2143
MGWs
|
403
MGWs
|
|
Under
construction
|
1044
MGWs
|
629
MGWs
|
|
Consented
|
3437
MGWs
|
3414
MGWs
|
|
In
planning
|
6556
MGWs
|
6556
MGWs
|
|
13180
MGWs
|
11002
MGWs
|
|
|
Equiv.
to 4400 3 mg wind gens
|
||
Note that the
electricity delivered averaged throughout the year is only 1/3rd the capacity.
Thus the above onshore, fully operational, will on average, deliver circa
4.4 Giga watts.
Note also, there is no reason why the land owners of the generators not yet
constructed could not join this game!
Current application planning time - 16 months
9. Land based distributed wind generation issues
Wind generated power is now proven performing technology. Of all the alternative
energy crisis solutions, this is, by far, the least expensive. Important though
to note that to deliver our world from potential apocalypse, we need the full
capacity of all the solutions, including nuclear. But the more we invest in
wind, tide geothermal and direct solar the less Nuclear we need. This last is
still fraught with fearsome world wide safety problems.
Much of the generation will be taking place near where power is required. Distributed
geographically throughout the UK, generators will feed direct into the current
grid network so minimising investment in grid enhancement. Sure, some areas
will need enhancement and that cost needs to be accounted for. (see
section 14) But clearly this will be considerably less that that required
to deliver from totally new massive offshore and onshore wind farms.
Wind generators are only at full capacity in strong winds. Experience shows
that on average they deliver about 1/3rd of their rated capacity over the year.
Hence the 30,000 three mega watt generators in
this plan could deliver 90 gigawatts at full wind
power, but will only average 1/3rd of that - 30
gigawatts. (Note that most current schemes quote their theoretical capacity
not their average expected delivery).
There is nearly always wind somewhere so distributing the capability throughout
the UK ensures best use of the UK wind resource. However, clearly the generating
capacity has to be backed by base line conventional capability to cover low
wind speed weather. (see "Mackie's experience"
section 11)
Minimising factors for this requirement are -
> Wide geographic spread
> Other renewable sources on stream - offshore wind, wave and particularly
tide
> Geo-thermal
> Hydro power maximised complete with enhanced pump storage systems that can respond to high wind days.
Demand Management -
> A crucial
element is the development of a smart grid that can automatically switch on
and off non time dependent house and business appliances, as power supply availability
allows.
> Development of ability for business and households to store heat energy,
and a capability, in conjunction with a smart grid, to wind down to only essential
operations when/if necessary.
> Development of hydrogen and other energy storage capability (The tech of
this in its infancy)
Given political will to solve the planning process problems, we can fast deliver
a very very meaningful part solution to both the energy and the climate change
crisis.
10. Scale issues
Think big. A physical limit is far away. 30,000
3MW windgens is a potential target. Certainly doable,
so why not target it! At that level, RSWL on average will generate 30
Giga watts, a touch over the current total generating capacity of the UK, equivalent
to 22 Sizewell B nuclear plants, or of future importance,
enough power to make enough hydrogen to replace a third
of the fuel needed currently for all our UK public and private road transport.
It would only be lengthy and restrictive planning procedures that would prevent
the delivery of 30,000 3MG windmills in the next
12 years. Say 3,000/year from year 2 onwards. You
can be sure that Teesside Humberside Clydeside and Belfast
would be delighted to tool up to make them! 30,000
is on average circa one every three square miles, though
to be practical, for both aesthetic and efficiency reasons, they would need
to be grouped on the best hill riser sites.
Energy storage technology of which hydrogen in one answer, is in its infancy,
but will no doubt develop. And the growing company could play a meaningful role
in such development.
The power of scale and the economies of scale are important. -
> Imagine ordering 3,000 windgens every year
for 10 years!
> Imagine the deals to be made with power users, including special deals
for original rural community RSWL investors! Within the limits of Competition
Commission regulations, RSWL would be a price maker not a taker.
> Scale allows the employment of the best technical, financial and administrative
expertise.
> Politics at all level would have to pay attention, and facilitate resolution
of planning blockage.
11. Mackie's
of Scotland Ltd experience
The
progenitor of this initiative is Chairman of the above family company (see www.mackies.co.uk),
now totally managed by the new generation. Under the leadership of Mac Mackie
they have recently invested in three .85 megawatt wind generators, now powering
the farm, estate and ice cream business. The substantial surplus feeds back
through their transformer automatically to the local grid network. It is sold
to 'Good Energy', a 100% renewable energy retailer.
The knowledge gained has much contributed to the thinking behind this initiative.
Some of the experience is shared below.
|
Margaret
(Apr 05) Matilda and Mirabel (Jul 07)
 |
The
Three Muses |
Physical performance
is detailed in the chart below. Margaret performed alone till twin sisters
arrived July 07
 |
Being insignificant
in the market, we are of course price takers. But even so it's the best investment
we have ever made. We are a price taker. RSWL as a major player would be a price
maker.
A touch of imagination allows extrapolation of this chart to depict a similar
for UKplc. The blue would depict base line back up requirement for light and
no winds. Blue and yellow normal industrial and domestic requirement. Green
as available surplus for private and public energy storage capability - electric
cars, heat storage, hydrogen manufacture etc.
12.
Rural Sector Wingen Ltd ownership and share structure
Ownership and share structure is very much at a preliminary "idea"
stage, and will be subject to change as idea, opportunity and necessity dictates.
A major objective will be to ensure this company (RSWL) clearly favors dwellers
of the countryside, villages and, small townships, and small investors anywhere.
The plan would be that the rural sector will have priority, ie first call in
investment opportunities, and early rural investors, holders of original "green"
shares, could benefit from substantive discounts on domestic electricity, proportional
to their share holding.
However it is not proposed to elaborate here on the imaginative ownership ideas,
for this is a complex legal area that will be professionally and formally tackled,
if enough interest is shown by the rural sector to pursue the initiative.
13. Management structure & governance
Initial management will come from the Mackie's of Scotland stable
(the progenitors of the plan)
Chairman - Dr Maitland Mackie CBE. BSc Agri. MA hons econ. FRAgS. DBA
Managing Director - to be appointed
Marketing Director - to be appointed
Financial Director - to be appointed
Technical Director - to be appointed
Site procurement Director - to be appointed
3 directors to be appointed from early participators
Governance to be articulated in the company constitution and articles
Current think tank advisory and development team
Several members of Mackies management team
Colin Anderson (Technical guru)
Pat Machray (Financial guru)
Jennifer Craw (Business development guru)
Dr Richard Birnie (Macaulay Land Use Research Institute)
Professor John Hillman (Director (Rtd) Scottish Crop Research Institute - Energy
guru)
14.
Financial potential - A P & L speculation on full 30,000
3MW windgens (12 years)
Please note that the figures in this section come solely from the 'Mackie's
of Scotland' three years direct experience. It needs to be made clear that
they have not been subjected to third party assessment and risk analysis.
This will be another first priority task to be undertaken should enough interest
within the rural community be generated to encourage formal incorporation
and pursuit of the initiative.
Capital
required
Mills - £90B (£1m per MW)
Grid connections - £8B (Likely an overestimate
since windgens to be distributed over UK)
Start up costs - £2B (planning, delays, admin
& office costs, contingency)
Total £100B
Output (wind
patterns deliver an average output is 1/3rd potential capacity)
@ 33% of capacity - 1000KW x 24hrs x 365days = 8.7m KWs per windgen
Price tricky to estimate. Assume a renewable order certificate of 4.5p, and
a retail price of 7.5 p give 12p/KW less 1P grid charge - say 11p (in an energy
crisis situation price can only rise.)
8.7 M KWs @ 11p = £957k per windgen
P
& L
|
Income
30k windgens x £975k
|
£29.25
billion
|
|
Service
say £30k per windgen
|
£0.9
billion
|
|
Depreciation
(15 yrs)
|
£6.0
billion
|
|
30
Admin & Tech staff, and office costs
|
£0.002
billion
|
|
Interest
on £300B @ 6%
|
£6.0
billion
|
|
Site
land rentals 90k @ £15,000
|
£0.45
billion
|
|
Contingency
|
£0.10
billion
|
|
Total
Expenses
|
£13.452
billion
|
|
Entrepreneurial
return (net after 6% int on total capital)
|
£15.798
billion (15.8%)
|
Notes
1) This speculation is a static of the completed project 12 yrs away, at today's
prices. The dynamic will be very different. (see cash
flow speculation below) The analysis will be very sensitive to price
movements of both inputs and outputs. However It is likely though that both
will follow the rising costs of energy. Further, it is likely that energy (power)
price rises will precede windgen price rises.
2) P & L interest charges will be considerably less than above, probably
half, as the first windmills will start delivering income in year 3. Shareholder
capital will further reduce this outgoing. (see
cash flow speculation below)
3) The dynamics will also change if RSWL starts to invest in further downstream
activity before year 12 - eg in hydrogen production by water hydrolysis, and
fertilizer manufacture from hydrogen.
4) The analysis is sensitive to the 'renewable order certificates' (currently
circa 4.5p per kw unit). It is in place overtly to stimulate such investment.
Realistically fast removal would be politically difficult and dependant on being
replaced by market place power price rises.
5) This analysis takes no account of taxation, potential grant and other government
support possibilities other than the current R O C arrangements.
15. Financing Rural Sector Wingen Ltd
Cash flow dynamics covering principle activities.
Some assumptions
> Electricity price inflation to cover cost inflation, and removal of he
R.O.C. The £100 million year 2 shareholders funds will cover all staff,
planning, office, business development and marketing overheads in following
years.
> Current experience is that the £1M per megawatt cost includes ground
work, installation, commissioning and local grid modification.
> The cash income streams forecast are practical extrapolation from the P
& L forecast above. The finance charges are gross - ie 6% on full investment
cost, as if all capital finances were bonds or bank loan.
Yr 1
Start up finance - from Green share investors - landholders and
the wider rural community
Say from many small scale investors £10
million - to finance -
> Office & initial driving team and initiate -
> Full financial assessment including - exploration of financing alternatives
> Engage rural sector financial participation
> Market assessment
> Geographical/wind assessment to establish UK wide best sites
> Grid capability assessment
> Windmill supply potential
> Prepare PR & political sell brochures
> Tackle political and planning issues
> Engage and train installation control team
End Yr 2
Challenge to achieve rural sector Green share ownership > £100M
as core development finance. But no limit, for if we target for 80% gearing
we need as much as possible Green (A) share ownership to keep ownership, initially
at least, in rural sector hands.
£100M green share sourced fund could/should cover Head office team and
admin, developing installation control team, and ad hoc overhead development
costs. For the following years.
The principal
tasks would be more of the above plus-
> Identification of first 3,000 windgen sites
c/w planning permissions
> Arrange finance for them - £9B through-
Offer of A shares to original green shareholders (at a discount of any perceived
premium?)
A ordinary shares thereafter to investors worldwide
B (non voting) 6% preference shares worldwide
Company fixed interest bonds
Bank long term loans
End Yr 3
Principle task
|
To
install 1st 3,000 windgens
|
|
|
To
agree finance for 2nd set of 3,000 generators,
as per above, perhaps with an incentive for above A ord share holders
|
£9.0
billion
|
|
Buy
1st 3,000 windgens
|
£9.0
billion
|
|
Interest
at 6%
|
£0.54
billion
|
|
Service
and site rental (3,000 @ £45k)
|
£0.14
billion
|
|
Cash
flow
|
£9.68
billion
|
End
Yr 4
Principle tasks
|
To
install 2nd set of 3,000 windgens
|
|
|
To
arrange finance for 3rd set of 3,000 windgens
|
£9.0
billion
|
|
Buy
2nd set 3,000 windgens
|
£9.0
billion
|
|
Interest
at 6% on £18.68 billion
|
£1.12
billion
|
|
Service
and site rental (6,000 @ £45k)
|
£.27
billion
|
|
Yr
3 (3,000 windgens) cash income
|
£2.87
billion
|
|
Yr
4 cash flow
|
£7.52
billion
|
|
Cumulative
cash flow
|
£17.20
billion
|
End Yr 5
Principle tasks
|
To
install 3rd set of 3,000 windgens
|
|
|
To
arrange finance for 4th set of 3,000 windgens
|
£9.0
billion
|
|
Buy
3rd set 3,000 windgens
|
£9.0
billion
|
|
Interest
at 6% on £26.2 billion
|
£1.57
billion
|
|
Service
and site rental (9,000 @ £45k)
|
£0.41
billion
|
|
Yrs
1 & 2 (6,000 windgens) cash income
|
£5.74
billion
|
|
Yr
5 cash flow
|
£5.24
billion
|
|
Cumulative
cash flow
|
£22.44
billion
|
End Yr 6
Principle tasks
|
To
install 4th set of 3,000 windgens
|
|
|
To
arrange finance for 5th set of 3,000 windgens
|
£9.0
billion
|
|
Buy
4th set 3,000 windgens
|
£9.0
billion
|
|
Interest
at 6% on £31.44 billion
|
£1.89
billion
|
|
Service
and site rental (12,000 @ £45k)
|
£0.54
billion
|
|
9,000
windgens cash income
|
£8.61
billion
|
|
Yr
6 cash flow
|
£2.82
billion
|
|
Cumulative
cash flow
|
£25.26
billion
|
End Yr 7
Principle tasks
|
To
install 5th set of 3,000 windgens
|
|
|
To
arrange finance for 6th set of 3,000 windgens
|
£9.0
billion
|
|
Buy
5th set 3,000 windgens
|
£9.0
billion
|
|
Interest
at 6% on £34.26 billion
|
£2.06
billion
|
|
Service
and site rental (15,000 @ £45k)
|
£0.68
billion
|
|
12,000
windgens cash income
|
£11.48
billion
|
|
Yr
7 cash flow
|
£0.26
billion
|
|
Cumulative
cash flow
|
£25.52
billion
|
End Yr 8
Principle tasks
|
To
install 6th set of 3,000 windgens
|
|
|
To
arrange finance for 7th set of 3,000 windgens
|
£9.0
billion
|
|
Buy
6th set 3,000 windgens
|
£9.0
billion
|
|
Interest
at 6% on £34 billion
|
£2.04
billion
|
|
Service
and site rental (18,000 @ £45K)
|
£0.81
billion
|
|
15,000
windgens cash income
|
£14.36
billion
|
|
Yr
8 cash flow net surplus
|
£2.51
billion
|
|
Cumulative
cash flow
|
£23.01
billion
|
End Yr 9
Principle tasks
|
To
install 7th set of 3,000 windgens
|
|
|
To
arrange finance for 8th set of 3,000 windgens
|
£9.0
billion
|
|
Buy
7th set 3,000 windgens
|
£9.0
billion
|
|
Interest
at 6% on £32.01 billion
|
£1.92
billion
|
|
Service
and site rental (21,000 @ £45K)
|
£0.95
billion
|
|
18,000
windgens cash income
|
£17.22
billion
|
|
Yr
9 cash flow net surplus
|
£5.35
billion
|
|
Cumulative
cash flow
|
£17.66
billion
|
End Yr 10
Principle tasks
|
To
install 8th set of 3,000 windgens!
|
|
|
To
arrange finance for last 6,000 generators
|
£18.0
billion
|
|
Buy
8th set 3,000 windgens
|
£9.0
billion
|
|
Interest
at 6% on £26.66 billion
|
£1.6
billion
|
|
Service
and site rental (24,000 @ £45K)
|
£1.08
billion
|
|
21,000
windgens cash income
|
£20.08billion
|
|
Yr
10 cash flow net surplus
|
£8.4billion
|
|
Cumulative
cash flow
|
£9.26
billion
|
End Yr 11
Principle tasks
|
To
install last 6,000 windgens
|
|
|
Buy
last 6,000 windgens
|
£18.0
billion
|
|
Interest
at 6% on £27.26 billion
|
£1.64
billion
|
| Service and site rental (30,000 @ 45k) | £1.35 billion |
|
24,000
windgens' cash income
|
£22.97
billion
|
|
Yr
11 cash flow net surplus
|
£1.98
billion
|
|
Cumulative
cash flow
|
£7.28
billion
|
End Yr 12
Principle tasks
|
Service
and site rental (30,000 @ £45k)
|
£1.35
billion
|
|
30,000
windgens' cash income
|
£28.71
billion
|
|
Yr
12 cash flow
|
£27.36
billion
|
|
Cumulative
cash flow
|
£20.08
billion
|
16. Next
stage and milestones (preliminary)
1.
Explore for farmer/landowner/wider rural interest.
Establish availability of £10 million start up capital from multitude
of rural and small scale investors - to deliver wide spread ownership
2. Prepare innovative prospectus for first investors
3. Appoint Board
4. Secure initial core green share capital investment from registrants.
5. Appoint CE, FD, technical director, secretary and admin backup
6. Explore for SE help for start up and development
7. Professionalize strategic and operation plans.
8. Prepare approach to Governments at all levels
9. Identify early start up sites
10. Explore supply issues
11. Get going!!
17. Some facts and
figures on the energy crisis
We are now all concerned about climate change and the huge challenge to effect
substantial carbon emission reduction.
However this challenge is dwarfed by the enormity of the looming energy crisis
facing the world. Though the good news is that solving this last could go a
long way to solving the former.
The crucial point is that we have plumbed the depth of the world's oil supply.
Serious cognoscenti now confirm that oil output has peaked. Most major oilfields
are in their mature output reduction phase. And we are close to plumbing the
depth of gas reserves.
Some stark facts: - Note figures come from intuitive averaging of various varying
sources. They are correct in scale, but may be wrong in insignificant detail.
In last five years the World oil consumption averaged 27 Billion barrels per
year
New finds averaged 3Billion. That is one barrel found for every nine barrels
of known reserves used.
And there is little likelyhood of any major new oil and gas finds.
It is likely that in the secondary & tertiary periods of an oilfield's exploitation,
high and expensive tech can, for a wee while, increase oil flows and recovery
rates.
And
A few fields can certainly ramp up production somewhat, but not nearly enough
to replace the annual reductions in the current major oilfields and satisfy
increasing demand. (daily output
reduction is circa four million barrels per day per year)
Demand is steadily escalating. And will shortly accelerate massively. And impossibly.
700 Million Americans and Europeans each consume circa 22 barrels per
year.
2.5 Billion Chinese and Indians currently each consume 1.6 barrels per
year.
Our current
production globally delivers less than 5 barrels per person per year. It does
not take a degree in economics to see the impossibility of satisfying the legitimate
energy aspirations of these developing economies, without really colossal investment
in nuclear, even coal, and new renewable technologies
Today's demand,
(and production) is 85 million bpd.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates a 2030 non accelerating demand
of 118 million bpd. Such modest increase is equivalent to 4 new Saudi Arabias.
To put increasing
demand into perspective, if all in the world used oil as per America we'd need
a daily production of 450 bpd!
Certainly we can be far more efficient in our energy use. And we have to learn
fast so to be. But 6 Billion people using each a modest 10 barrels per year
would still require doubling current output!
We have to grasp that the oil and gas to so supply is not there. It is not there
even to supply the status quo.
World reserves
are circa 1200 billion barrels, equivalent to 40 years supply at current consumption.
The point
however is not that we have oil for 40 years then we suddenly run out. It
is that the increasingly massive imbalance between supply and demand will
cause imminent astronomical and permanent price rises. $130 oil is just the
start. Every 2 years a doubling is not unlikely, until massive real alternatives
are delivering. - nuclear, geothermal wind, wave and tidal for electrical
energy, and hydrogen production for power storage and for independent locomotive
power. (This does assume that another Einstein is not lurking in a garage
somewhere!)
Importantly, we need to note there is no big role for Bio fuels other than
that from waste products. All the World's fertile lands will be required for
food production.
To give
a flavour of the enormity of the problem. To replace our UK current road fuel
usage only, by hydrogen, produced by hydrolysis, would require-
67 Sizewell B Nuclear plants, or-
90000 of the biggest 3 MW land windmills, or
Wales or Yorkshire covered in solar panels.
Note that
transport only accounts for circa 1/3rd of our 0il and gas energy requirements.
Thus as these fossil fuels fast reduce, the replacement challenge is 3 or
4 times greater.
Look around you - near everything you see, is 50 to 90% oil. Scary.
One estimate is that it would take 30% of N America's wheat, maize and soya
crops to deliver energy and raw material for its plastic product annual usage
alone. It would take 20% of Europe's cropland to replace 5% of its current
petrol and diesel usage!
Of fundamental
concern is that half the food of the world is oil. We eat oil. Without bag
N, food production will be near halved. Ammonium Nitrate, through the Haber-Bosch
process, is totally dependant on oil and gas. 1% of world's energy is required
to produce its 500M tons. Without it we can only feed ½ the World's
current 6.1 B population, and that at 1900 diet levels. This nitrogen fertiliser
supply is the principal reason for the 1950 population of 3 billion managing
to explode to its current 6.3 Billion!
We have Armageddon, unless new energy sources are soon available also, for
production of fertiliser
We need to
realize that an Adam Smith "invisible hand" demand/supply approach
to the challenge is unlikely to work. The absolutely colossal and immediate
investment's in new energy delivering structures that is now required, requires
an equally commensurate amount of energy to build and commission them. Demand
and supply price economics works through price rises stimulating increased supply.
But you cannot stimulate supply of something that becomes permanently out of
stock. If we run out of the old energy before enough of the new is created,
we cannot create the new supply, and Armageddon ensues.
A huge
worldwide political drive is required to effect the crucial massive shift
of resources needed to create such colossal new energy delivering structures.
It can be done. But we must begin now. And it probably has to start with driving
the proverbial coach and horses through the myriad of stultifying planning
procedures!
The very good news is that such a massive shift of energy resources into nuclear,
solar (wind, waves and tide are solar) and hydrogen production goes a long way
to meeting the challenge of effecting substantive reduction in atmospheric carbon.
Indeed much much more than the "edge tinkering" that is the current
vogue. But we should note that, unless Einstein the Second appears, energy will
never be cheap again.